Pre-season team build-up: How important is it?

Check out what had you missed in the first 4 gameweeks.

Having a good start means alot of things. You won't have to make extra transfer to adjust your squad; you gain price-up for form players in your team, you can save your wildcard for better use. You don't make unnecessary changes due to player not selected in first team or missing out through injury. While other people rushing to purchase hot items, you are setting a good example for others to emulate. It always feels good to be up front in the title race, isn't it?

Let's look back again to how you prepare your squad during pre-season. There are a few things to look out:

1) Which of the big 4 teams have the easiest opponents in the coming 3 games?
2) Which of the outsider teams have 1 or more sure-win games coming soon?
3) Which teams will be missing a mid-week game due to European participation?

Well, the first two criterias apply for the whole season too. The third one means to remind you to make the best use of the fixture list.

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Yes, we're not selecting our favourite player, we're selecting players that will help us get points. When you build your team always start by determining the key players, who usually cost the most but are sure to bring you a lot of points. Who will they be? Of course the big 4 teams players. They don't dubbed big 4 for nothing. They score more goals, have better defense, and are more consistent in performance. Let's make use of the fantasy stats and see if I'm correct.

Team score after GW4:
*1 240 Chelsea
*2 197 Man Utd
*5 183 Liverpool
*7 167 Arsenal (1 game less)

It's pretty clear. The big 4 are performing well so far! So you get great score by selecting players from big 4 teams. BUT...out of these 4 teams, which one to choose? So let's check out who their opponent was:

Chelsea: Hul(H),Sun(A),Ful(A),Bur(H).
Man Utd: Bir(H),Bur(A),Wol(A),Ars(H).
Arsenal: Eve(A),------,Por(H),MU(H).
Liverpool: Tot(A),Sto(H),AV(H),Bol(A).

You have to agree with me. The bolded fixture are considered easier game for them. Note that Chelsea have the most easy opponent among the 4 teams. This means that you get the maximum advantage by having 3 Chelsea players in your team. Meanwhile Man Utd face all three newly promoted in the first 3 game! This is clear enough: You should own maximum numbers of Man Utd players in your team as well! Life is easy then.

Why not Arsenal or Liverpool? Note that Arsenal will miss a game in GW2. This is a big disadvantage as Arsenal players don't come cheap and it's a very wrong move to have your key players sitting on the bench at the early stage. What about Liverpool? They have a stiff test against Tottenham in the first game and it's harder to judge their form afterwards. A buy-in during GW2 will be more recommended (yes, a home game against Stoke City is considered easy meat).

So how accurate am I on this? We already saw just now that Chelsea and Man Utd are currently top 2 fantasy point scorer. While Arsenal are 7th because they played 1 game less. Liverpool DID predictably fared less impressive compared to the others. So far we're getting the expectations correct.

Now let's look at the predicted and the unpredicted:

Predicted:
- Chelsea won all 4 games, with 4 goals from midfielders and 5 goals from forwards.
- Man Utd played around Rooney with him scoring 4 times.
- Rotations occurs more often at Arsenal as they plays in Champions League qualifier.
- Liverpool played around Gerrard and Torres, scoring 5 times between them.

Unpredicted:
- Man Utd lost at newcomer Burnley. Many people placed their captain bet on Rooney that particular gameweek.
- Arsenal win 6-1 at Everton, compensating for the 1 game missing.
- Chelsea failed to keep clean sheet for the first 2 games, causing some people to lose confidence on their defense.
- Liverpool, one of the best defence team, conceded 7 goals in 4 games.

Now what do you see? Working on the predicted items and it's sounds easy. Right? And what about the unpredicted? The risk are fairly high and you might possibly lose out big meat or fire blanks by betting on it. We have other sure things to bet on. Let's read further.

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Outsiders. Yes. We're referring to those teams that are not so likely to challenge for the league title this season, mainly because of the lack of consistency. While fantasy game is all about form, we have to make the most out of it and buy the cheaper players at the best timing.

How to determine which outsider teams or players to invest on? Two things to check, one is by player, another is by team. Both methods coming with some risk.

By player: every team will have one or two key players that can make differents, even in disadvantage situation. How to identify them? Even beginners can figure them out. Yup, just check out their last season's performance. A few examples: Young(AV), Gamst Pedersen(Bla), Matthew Taylor(Bol), Cahill and Arteta(Eve), Dempsey(Ful), Jones(Sun), Carlton Cole(WH). You will also notice that they are usually the most costly players in their team (Because they worth it!) With this you know which players to look for when you pick on a team.

By team: check the schedule. Look out for easy meat. Identify the relegation favourites and pick players from the teams that face them. Now lets get an example from the fixture list of first 4 gameweek:

AV: Wig(H),------,Liv(A),Ful(H)

Yup, you will easily think that Villa will excel in the bolded games. Well, not quite accurate for this one, as they lost to Wigan but won at Liverpool. But basically that's the idea we're looking for. Let's say that we judge Villa to have easy fixtures coming soon. Who will you invest on? Pick the cheapest from first choice defenders, and then influential players, which, in this case, Young, Agbonlahor, or Milner.

Other teams that I judged to have relatively easier fixture in the first 4 gameweeks:
Tot: Liv(H),Hul(A),WH(A),Bir(H)
Sto: Bur(H),Liv(A),Bir(A),Sun(H)
Por: Ful(H),Bir(A),Ars(A),MC(H) (Alright, wrong judgement)

Worth a bet, right? You know who to pick.

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Missing fixture. Yup. Every season we have the same dilemma. You have some players you really wish to choose. But they miss second gameweek due to European matches, which, for this season they are: MC,Ars,AV,WH,Ful,Eve,Bla, and Bol. In my opinion, it's a wise decision not to pick from these teams until GW3. It's good if they score. But if they don't, You'll lose further in GW2 and nothing to compensate, as half of your team will not be playing. Not worth it. definitely.

Anyway, there's still teams from the lists which performs extremely well. Man City and Arsenal. Excusable as they are considered big teams. But for the rest, the risk is too high.

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Now for the wrap-up.

Maybe you had heard people said this before: "Don't put all eggs in one basket." Does this applies here? I've seen people buying Cech, Terry and Bosingwa in the start of last season and went on to win lots of points, as Chelsea got 10 clean sheets out of first 14 games (Bosingwa scored a few goals too). And remember Man Utd once went 14 games without conceding a goal. This is an exceptional case. When you do it right you get an edge over teams who spread their eggs. For this season we saw a good example on Stoke City and Burnley. Nice and cheap, aren't they? 4.0 each for the defence and then save the rest for star players. How nice! It might be risky to invest on Burnley(You don't even know who's playing) but Stoke City did have an easier fixture ahead. Discover it earlier and you are in front of many others. HOWEVER, do not think that you can hold on to them forever, unexpected situations happens. Make necessary change when time comes.

What choice had I made for the season-start? I picked 3 Chelsea, 3 Man Utd, 2 Portsmouth, 2 Stoke, 1 Liverpool for my first team. Chelsea, Man Utd and Stoke players are doing great, while Portsmouth and Liverpool are wrong bets. Add it up I still get a fine score. Would have fared better if I trust on Stoke more. Failing to identify Man City and Tottenham as great season-starter also costs me a lot.